Analysis

Broker-dealers' year-ahead forecasts have undershot total final issuance in three of the last five years.

Reinsurers are making some adjustments to secure target signings but appetite to grow is finely balanced.

Projected 2024 ILS returns remain historically high, but signs of increased appetite for top-layer cat risk and top-end retro raise questions over how long this will last.

New and returning sponsors, diversifying European wind risks and early placement of US hurricane coverage all helped new issuance to smash market expectations.

Anticipations of a tug-of-war around a ‘flat to slightly up’ pricing renewal have indeed come to fruition.

The year brought a degree of closure on the loss-hit years of 2017-2021, while the outlook remains changeable for ILS managers.

ILS managers are still waiting for hard market growth.

Analysis by Lane Financial concluded that ILS returns will likely be double-digit-to-high-teens in 2024.

With more ILS managers chasing the popular bond space, how will new operators differentiate themselves?

A strong outlook for sidecar profits in 2023 is rebuilding investor confidence but one to three years of good performance will be needed to sustain it more fully.

Experts at the Trading Risk New York conference emphasised in-built cyber risk protections from defences to exclusions, as ILS managers grapple with understanding the peril.

Cat bond investors are sufficiently capitalised to fulfil demand from an anticipated strong pipeline of new issuance in Q4.