Hurricane
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Various trends may work together to hold the cat markets up for longer than some had feared.
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Panellists at the Insurance Insider ILS conference say forecasts can push capital to “the edges” of the market.
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Researchers expect 15-20 named storms to form in the Atlantic Basin.
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Sources said preparations for a 2024 IPO were halted, but work could resume later this year.
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Inver Re used data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to model the impacts of global warming for a Category 1 hurricane making landfall in Florida.
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The National Flood Insurance Programme could face a loss of around $500mn from the hurricane, according to the estimate.
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Hurricane Idalia is still live, but the storm’s track reassured market participants that it will be a relatively minor loss.
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Idalia might add further aggregate erosion to several cat bonds covering various perils over an annual risk period, it stated.
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With Hurricane Idalia’s landfall underway loss estimates are uncertain, but sources noted that the storm’s trajectory shows it taking the best path to impact minimal insured values in Florida.
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The update projections for wind only show a 20% likelihood of losses approaching $11.7bn.
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More than 800,000 houses could be affected by the hurricane’s storm surge.
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If the storm steers clear of Tampa, reinsurers will be well placed for minimal losses, but a retention loss is a further blow for weak Floridians.
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Hurricane Idalia will reach Jacksonville but will have weakened by then
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The Cat-4 storm is likely to weaken as it approaches the California coast.
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There has never been a named storm to form in the eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the season.
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The forecaster is predicting there could be as many as 14 hurricanes in the North Atlantic between June and November.
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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast “near-normal" hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year.
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Higher rates and reserve releases connected to Hurricane Ian boosted results.
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The firm’s flood solution will be available to layer on top of existing parametric hurricane wind policies.
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Hurricane Ian’s legacy will undoubtedly lead to some shake-ups in the ILS sector, with ongoing progression outside cat and ESG strategies likely to be a focus.
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The reinsurer emphasised the need for improved secondary peril models including predictive capabilities.
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Frontier Advisors said sentiment continues to be challenged by performance.
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The new loss pick takes into account litigation and inflation costs, as well as claims activity to date.
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Most ILS firms are marking the Ian loss as a $50bn+ event, although there are exceptions.
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The bonds had been heavily marked down initially.
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Hurricane Ian losses at United Insurance Holdings (UPC) Insurance have nearly reached the top of its personal lines reinsurance tower, company executives said on its earnings call.
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The sector’s performance was better overall compared with September 2017.
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FloodSmart Re bonds recovered by a few points in October after initial steep write-downs following Ian.
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For larger top-end ILW triggers, cedants may have to be pragmatic on rolling over capital.
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A special session in December and prohibition of assignments of benefits have been cited on the Florida campaign trail.
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The firm’s capital and risk solutions segment has been growing its reinsurance business this year.
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The analysts said market pricing indicators suggested a hard market was going to set in, requiring increases of 20%-30%.
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The federal flood insurance program’s claims count has stepped up from 25,000 a fortnight ago.
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Major questions confront the industry after Hurricane Ian, but no matter the answers, certain outcomes are inevitable.
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Buyers are more open than ever to different sources of capacity, but the timing of entry will not be on the industry’s terms.
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The state insurance body received reports of 375,293 claims as of 6 October.
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